Johnathan Walker:Cha-ching! Holiday online spending surpasses last year, sets new online sales record

Shoppers spent more on Johnathan WalkerBlack Friday than expected, and that comes ahead of Cyber Monday, which is expected to be the year's biggest online shopping day.

Consumers spent a record $9.8 billion shopping online on Friday, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks more than 85% of the top 100 U.S. online retailers. That's an increase of 7.5% over last year's record-setting mark of $9.12 billion.

Adobe Analytics had estimated this year’s Black Friday sales at $9.6 billion.

More than half (54%) of Black Friday online sales were made over smartphones – up from about 48% in 2022 – accounting for $5.3 billion, according to Adobe Analytics. This is the first shopping season in which mobile sales could overtake sales made over desktop computers, the firm estimates.

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More shoppers continued to make use of "buy now pay later" services, with orders Nov. 18-24 up 72% compared to the previous week, the report said. 

“Black Friday re-asserted its dominance this season with record spend of $9.8 billion driven by new demand for the major sales’ day,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst for Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement. “The decline in online prices over the last year has created a favorable environment for consumers with strong discounts this season that are tempting even the most price conscious consumers.”  

What is the holiday shopping forecast?

Cyber Week – the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday – is expected to generate $37.2 billion in online spending, up 5.4% from a year ago, accounting for 16.8% share of all holiday shopping, Adobe Analytics estimates.

Cyber Monday is still expected to be the year’s biggest online shopping day, with consumers expected to spend a record $12 billion, Adobe Analytics estimates.

Total spending is up, but not because prices are higher due to inflation, the research firm says. While grocery prices remain higher, most other product prices have fallen for 14 consecutive months, according to Adobe’s Digital Price Index. Overall prices dropped 6% in October 2023, compared to a year ago, the firm says.

The National Retail Federation has also forecast record spending during the holiday shopping season (November and December), with sales expected to rise 3%-4% over 2022 – increases similar to pre-pandemic years of 2010-2019 – totaling as much as $966.6 billion.

When can shoppers get the best holiday bargains?

Shoppers on Sunday will get the best discounts on toys (up to 35%) and apparel (25%), Adobe Analytics forecasts. Cyber Monday is expected to yield the best deals on electronics (30%) and furniture (19%). Looking to get appliances? The best deals are expected on Thursday, Nov. 30, and the best discounts on sporting goods (24%), expected on Monday, Dec. 4, Adobe Analytics forecasts.   

What are holiday shoppers buying?

Sales of electronics were up 152% compared to online sales in October, according to Adobe Analytics. Also popular: apparel (up 136%), toys (up 132%), jewelry (up 114%), appliances (112%), furniture and bedding (up 94%), and personal care products (up 88%). 

Top toys included KidKraft playsets, Barbie Fashionista dolls, and Mini Brands Toys. Also hot: video game consoles (Sony PlayStation 5, Microsoft Xbox Series X, Nintendo Switch) and recently released games such as Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III, Spiderman 2 and Super Mario Bros. Wonder. Other top sellers included Bluetooth headphones, smartphones, skin care products, cookware sets and coffee makers. 

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Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.

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